{"id":66674,"date":"2024-09-01T09:00:08","date_gmt":"2024-09-01T07:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging.i4ce.org\/publication\/anticiper-effets-rechauffement-4-degres-adaptation-climat\/"},"modified":"2024-09-11T16:39:56","modified_gmt":"2024-09-11T14:39:56","slug":"anticipating-impacts-four-degrees-warming-cost-adaptation-france-climate","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/staging.i4ce.org\/en\/publication\/anticipating-impacts-four-degrees-warming-cost-adaptation-france-climate\/","title":{"rendered":"Anticipating the impacts of a 4\u00b0C warming: what is the cost of adaptation in France?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Assessing the economic implications of climate policies is essential for steering public action. <\/strong>Sig\u00adnificant progress has been achieved in assessing the costs of mitigation, particularly with the publication in 2023 of the report on the economic implications of climate action. However, as the Cour des Comptes noted in its 2024 annual public report, numerous issues surrounding adaptation continue to emerge. Our recent work has nev\u00adertheless enabled us to draw <strong>five initial conclusions <\/strong>on the subject:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>1 \u2013 Initial estimates but no single adaptation cost in France. <\/strong>We have been able to calculate some initial estimates for three major sectors: build\u00adings, land transport infrastructure and agricul\u00adtural crop production. These are presented in detail in the thematic sections of this document. This patchwork of different elements, of varying degrees of maturity depending on the area of activity, allows us to see the orders of magnitude of the sums involved for all economic actors. We should not, however, be too quick to calculate a single cost for adaptation in France. Such esti\u00admations are difficult because they depend both on the warming level that we wish to consider (and there is much work to be done to quantify the extent of vulnerability for each warming level) and on the way in which we collectively choose to prepare (with many of these choices still to be taken, as strategic visions of adaptation are yet to be defined). For example, flood prevention measures for a road may require works totalling several million euros, whereas organizing tem\u00adporary traffic closures during flooding episodes would mean accepting a lower level of service but would also be less expensive.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>2 \u2013 Without a more ambitious adaptation policy, unplanned reactive measures often turn out to be the costliest for public finances, already accounting for several billion euros a year. <\/strong>This expenditure includes the public cost of damage, the cost of repairing essential infra\u00adstructure and the cost of subsidies to overcome crisis. While in the short term a react and repair approach may sometimes seem simpler and cheaper than one based on anticipation, it is important to bear in mind that without structural adaptation, these costs will continue to rise and will cease to be exceptional. In addition to direct costs, there are wider socio-economic conse\u00adquences (impacts on the healthcare system, labour productivity, the efficiency of transport networks, the trade balance, etc.) which will have an impact on the whole economy and reinforce territorial and social inequalities.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>3 \u2013 Anticipation options are well understood and could be better deployed. <\/strong>These include, for example, promoting adaptated construction methods and appropriate architectural choices to maximize summer thermal comfort in build\u00adings, even without air conditioning; reinforcing certain structures or organizing maintenance differently to improve the robustness and resil\u00adience of infrastructure; adjusting certain cultiva\u00adtion practices or generalizing agroecological measures to limit the effect of climate variability on agricultural production. These options can sometimes be implemented at a limited cost \u2013 particularly by incorporating adaptation into the specifications for already planned investment. Sometimes, however, they represent additional costs, or even require the mobilization of addi\u00adtional dedicated resources. We are just beginning to appreciate the magnitude of the costs asso\u00adciated with the various levers of anticipation that could be activated with varying degrees of ambi\u00adtion. However, the costs of more transformational forms of adaptation are difficult to identify.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-66682 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/staging.i4ce.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Initial-order-of-magnitude-estimates-of-costs-associated-V1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1091\" height=\"782\" srcset=\"https:\/\/staging.i4ce.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Initial-order-of-magnitude-estimates-of-costs-associated-V1.jpg 1091w, https:\/\/staging.i4ce.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Initial-order-of-magnitude-estimates-of-costs-associated-V1-300x215.jpg 300w, https:\/\/staging.i4ce.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Initial-order-of-magnitude-estimates-of-costs-associated-V1-1024x734.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/staging.i4ce.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Initial-order-of-magnitude-estimates-of-costs-associated-V1-768x550.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1091px) 100vw, 1091px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>4 \u2013 Among the anticipation options, a number pro\u00adduce sufficient economic co-benefits to be intrinsically profitable, but this is not the case for all. This observation calls for a debate on the internalization of climate risks in economic models and the distribution of adaptation costs. <\/strong>The scale of the socio-economic impacts often justifies proactive public intervention, which can take several forms: the direct payment of some adaptation costs by public budgets being only one possible option among others.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>5 \u2013 In all cases, to ensure the best possible effi\u00adciency and distribution of expenditure, adap\u00adtation must be integrated into existing planning processes. <\/strong>The challenge is to ensure that the right warming level, at the right time in deci\u00adsion-making and investment cycles, is always taken into account, so that we can avoid being subjected to future climate change impacts as well as overinvesting in very costly adaptation measures that are ultimately never likely to be eco\u00adnomically justified. This requires a sequenced implementation of adaptation that considers the lifespan of investments and the reversibility of decisions, as well as a visible and stable distribu\u00adtion of responsibilities, to ensure that the incen\u00adtives for taking action are clear to the various economic actors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Assessing the economic implications of climate policies is essential for steering public action. Sig\u00adnificant progress has been achieved in assessing the costs of mitigation, particularly with the publication in 2023 of the report on the economic implications of climate action. However, as the Cour des Comptes noted in its 2024 annual public report, numerous issues surrounding adaptation continue to emerge. Our recent work has nev\u00adertheless enabled us to draw five initial conclusions on the subject. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":66912,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false},"type_publication":[49],"class_list":["post-66674","publication","type-publication","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","type_publication-climate-report"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Anticipating the impacts of a 4\u00b0C warming: what is the cost of adaptation in France? - I4CE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.i4ce.org\/en\/publication\/anticipating-impacts-four-degrees-warming-cost-adaptation-france-climate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Anticipating the impacts of a 4\u00b0C warming: what is the cost of adaptation in France? - I4CE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Assessing the economic implications of climate policies is essential for steering public action. 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